{"created":"2023-05-15T11:36:53.177231+00:00","id":26804,"links":{},"metadata":{"_buckets":{"deposit":"f084ff7e-f3f5-42bd-a291-d2d18299a082"},"_deposit":{"created_by":4,"id":"26804","owners":[4],"pid":{"revision_id":0,"type":"depid","value":"26804"},"status":"published"},"_oai":{"id":"oai:twcu.repo.nii.ac.jp:00026804","sets":["2026:2510:3346"]},"author_link":["13115"],"item_10002_alternative_title_24":{"attribute_name":"タイトル(別表記)","attribute_value_mlt":[{"subitem_alternative_title":"Estimating time-series models of the Chinese population using long-term statistical data and forecasting the short-term future population"}]},"item_10002_biblio_info_7":{"attribute_name":"書誌情報","attribute_value_mlt":[{"bibliographicIssueDates":{"bibliographicIssueDate":"2022-12-23","bibliographicIssueDateType":"Issued"},"bibliographicIssueNumber":"10","bibliographicPageEnd":"101","bibliographicPageStart":"88","bibliographic_titles":[{"bibliographic_title":"東京女子大学経済研究"}]}]},"item_10002_description_5":{"attribute_name":"内容","attribute_value_mlt":[{"subitem_description":"中国国家統計局の推計によれば、2021年末現在の中国の総人口は14億1260万人であり、前年から48万人だけ増加したに過ぎない。出生率は7.52‰で、建国以来最低となった。中国では少子高齢化が急速に進行しており、人口減少がいつ始まっても不思議ではない。本稿の目的は、国家統計局が公表している建国以来の長期人口統計 (1949-2021 年 ) に基づき、人口の時系列モデルを Levenberg-Marquardt 法の非線形最小2乗アルゴリズムを用いて推定し、短期 (2022-28 年 ) 人口の予測値と95％ ・68％予測区間を求めることである。分析の結果、定数項を含まない ARIMA(3,1,1) が良好に推定され、将来人口を表3、 表4のように予測することができた。中国において COVID-19 の影響は急激かつ深刻であり、早ければ 2022 年から人口減少に転じる可能性は否定できない。\nThe total population of China at the end of 2021 was 1412.6 million. The total population has only increased by 480,000. The birth rate was 7.52 ‰ , the lowest since the country was founded. With China’s declining birthrate and aging population becoming more serious, it is no wonder that the population begins to decline at any time. The purpose of this treatise is to estimate a time-series model (ARIMA model) of the Chinese population using long-term statistical data (1949-2021) and to predict the short-term (2022-2028) population. Finally, ARIMA (3,1,1) without a constant term could be well estimated by the nonlinear least squares method. As a result of the analysis, the predicted values of the population and the 95% / 68% forecast intervals in China are estimated as shown in Tables 3 and 4. Scince the impact of COVID-19 in China is rapid and serious, it is undeniable that the population may decline from 2022 at the earliest.","subitem_description_type":"Other"}]},"item_10002_publisher_8":{"attribute_name":"出版者","attribute_value_mlt":[{"subitem_publisher":"東京女子大学現代教養学部国際社会学科経済学専攻紀要編集委員会"}]},"item_10002_source_id_9":{"attribute_name":"ISSN","attribute_value_mlt":[{"subitem_source_identifier":" 2188367X","subitem_source_identifier_type":"ISSN"}]},"item_10002_text_25":{"attribute_name":"著者名ヨミ","attribute_value_mlt":[{"subitem_text_value":"シラサゴ, テツヤ"}]},"item_10002_text_26":{"attribute_name":"ファイル形式","attribute_value_mlt":[{"subitem_text_value":"application/pdf"}]},"item_10002_text_4":{"attribute_name":"著者名(別表記)","attribute_value_mlt":[{"subitem_text_value":"SHIRASAGO, Tetsuya"}]},"item_10002_text_6":{"attribute_name":"コンテンツの種類","attribute_value_mlt":[{"subitem_text_value":"紀要論文"}]},"item_creator":{"attribute_name":"著者","attribute_type":"creator","attribute_value_mlt":[{"creatorNames":[{"creatorName":"白砂, 堤津耶"}],"nameIdentifiers":[{"nameIdentifier":"13115","nameIdentifierScheme":"WEKO"}]}]},"item_files":{"attribute_name":"ファイル情報","attribute_type":"file","attribute_value_mlt":[{"accessrole":"open_date","date":[{"dateType":"Available","dateValue":"2022-12-23"}],"displaytype":"detail","filename":"経済研究10号栗田先生記念号_白砂先生.pdf","filesize":[{"value":"501.4 kB"}],"format":"application/pdf","licensetype":"license_note","mimetype":"application/pdf","url":{"label":"Full_Text SHIRASAGO Tetsuya.pdf","url":"https://twcu.repo.nii.ac.jp/record/26804/files/経済研究10号栗田先生記念号_白砂先生.pdf"},"version_id":"c78785b5-7479-44b7-8fc5-c330466157b7"}]},"item_keyword":{"attribute_name":"キーワード","attribute_value_mlt":[{"subitem_subject":"中国の総人口","subitem_subject_scheme":"Other"},{"subitem_subject":"時系列モデル","subitem_subject_scheme":"Other"},{"subitem_subject":"人口予測","subitem_subject_scheme":"Other"},{"subitem_subject":"長期統計","subitem_subject_scheme":"Other"},{"subitem_subject":"人口減少","subitem_subject_scheme":"Other"},{"subitem_subject":"total population of China","subitem_subject_language":"en","subitem_subject_scheme":"Other"},{"subitem_subject":"time-series model","subitem_subject_language":"en","subitem_subject_scheme":"Other"},{"subitem_subject":"long-term statistical data","subitem_subject_language":"en","subitem_subject_scheme":"Other"},{"subitem_subject":"population forecast","subitem_subject_language":"en","subitem_subject_scheme":"Other"},{"subitem_subject":"population decline","subitem_subject_language":"en","subitem_subject_scheme":"Other"}]},"item_language":{"attribute_name":"言語","attribute_value_mlt":[{"subitem_language":"jpn"}]},"item_resource_type":{"attribute_name":"資源タイプ","attribute_value_mlt":[{"resourcetype":"departmental bulletin paper","resourceuri":"http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501"}]},"item_title":"<論文>長期統計を用いた中国人口の時系列モデルの推定と短期将来人口の予測","item_titles":{"attribute_name":"タイトル","attribute_value_mlt":[{"subitem_title":"<論文>長期統計を用いた中国人口の時系列モデルの推定と短期将来人口の予測"}]},"item_type_id":"10002","owner":"4","path":["3346"],"pubdate":{"attribute_name":"公開日","attribute_value":"2022-12-23"},"publish_date":"2022-12-23","publish_status":"0","recid":"26804","relation_version_is_last":true,"title":["<論文>長期統計を用いた中国人口の時系列モデルの推定と短期将来人口の予測"],"weko_creator_id":"4","weko_shared_id":-1},"updated":"2023-05-15T11:48:57.620939+00:00"}